Publications

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Authors: Boris Morin; Aina Maimó Far; Damian Flynn; Conor Sweeney

Abstract: Increasing the share of electricity produced from (opens in a new window)renewable energy sources (RES), combined with RES dependence on weather, poses a critical challenge for (opens in a new window)energy systems. This study investigates the importance of the balance between wind and (opens in a new window)solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity on periods of low (opens in a new window)renewable generation, known as RES droughts. Three different RES datasets are used to estimate the capacity factors for different scenarios of installed capacities for wind and solar (opens in a new window)PV power. The skill of the RES datasets is quantified by comparing capacity factor time series to observed hourly data and by assessing their representation of observed RES droughts. The RES datasets are used to generate a 45-year hourly time series of RES capacity factor, enabling analysis of the frequency, duration and (opens in a new window)return periods of RES droughts at a climatological scale. Results show the importance of using an accurate, validated RES dataset for RES drought risk assessment. The addition of solar PV capacity to a wind-dominated system results in a significant reduction in the frequency and duration of RES droughts, while also reducing extremes and seasonal RES drought patterns. These findings underscore the importance of diversification in RES capacity to enhance energy security and resilience.